Oakhurst leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 91% of adults in Oakhurst typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oakhurst, ~34% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oakhurst compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oakhurst leans more Republican than 89 of 117 neighbors.
Oakhurst runs about 31 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Oakhurst is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oakhurst. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Oakhurst leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Oakhurst, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Oakhurst votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 82%, well above the New Jersey average of 61%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Oakhurst are family households, above 84% of cities. Oakhurst runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Oakhurst, NJ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Oakhurst looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Oakhurst is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Oakhurst have completed high school, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Deal, NJ R+42
- West Long Branch, NJ R+28
- Allenhurst, NJ R+29
- Wanamassa, NJ D+3
- Asbury Park, NJ D+36
- Interlaken, NJ R+11
- Loch Arbour, NJ R+37
- Eatontown, NJ Even
- Long Branch, NJ D+9
- Fort Monmouth, NJ R+6
Cities with Similar Populations
- Groveland, MA Even
- Brooklet, GA R+54
- Roeland Park, KS D+42
- Mountain View, AR R+63
- Baltimore, OH R+47
- Winfield, MO R+54
- Ione, CA R+38
- Ironwood, MI R+8
- Evansdale, IA R+10
- Cashmere, WA R+22
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.