Pawlet leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 80% of adults in Pawlet typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pawlet, ~34% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pawlet compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Pawlet leans more Republican than 49 of 89 neighbors.
Pawlet runs about 49 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Pawlet is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Pawlet. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Pawlet leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pawlet, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Pawlet votes against the grain of Vermont. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while Pawlet runs about 49 points more Republican.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Pawlet, VT does.
Why turnout in Pawlet looks the way it does
Turnout in Pawlet sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Pawlet, VT R+10
- West Pawlet, VT R+6
- Danby, VT R+27
- Wells, VT R+23
- Slateville, NY R+26
- South Granville, NY R+37
- Rupert, VT Even
- Dorset, VT D+22
- West Rupert, VT Even
- Tinmouth, VT R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pleasant Grove, CA R+39
- Zoar, OH R+52
- Cimarron, NM R+5
- Oxford, AR R+70
- Grayton Beach, FL R+49
- Lawn, TX R+79
- Windsor Mill, MD D+18
- Wolfs Crossroads, PA R+48
- Brookston, MN R+2
- College Hill, TX R+82
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.