Phoenix leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Phoenix typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Phoenix, ~32% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Phoenix compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Phoenix leans more Republican than 42 of 110 neighbors.
Phoenix runs about 31 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Phoenix is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Phoenix. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+42) and the south side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 41 points.
Why Phoenix leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Phoenix, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Phoenix votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 31%, about 5 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Phoenix runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Phoenix, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Phoenix looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Phoenix is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Wrights Corners, NY R+32
- Hinmansville, NY R+30
- Three Rivers, NY D+7
- Sand Ridge, NY R+20
- Pennellville, NY R+23
- Little Utica, NY R+28
- Baldwinsville, NY D+4
- Fulton, NY R+22
- Dexterville, NY R+37
- Floridaville, NY R+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- Fair Haven, NJ D+7
- Hardeeville, SC Even
- Perry, OH R+32
- Moraine, OH R+11
- Childersburg, AL R+37
- Farmington, NH R+24
- Nelsonville, OH R+26
- White Pine, TN R+62
- Ben Lomond, CA D+31
- Valley View, TX R+67
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.