Plum Tree leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 91% of adults in Plum Tree typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Plum Tree, ~28% vote Democratic, ~63% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Plum Tree compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Plum Tree leans more Republican than 63 of 81 neighbors.
Plum Tree runs about 43 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Plum Tree is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Plum Tree. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+42) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Plum Tree leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Plum Tree, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Plum Tree votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Plum Tree runs about 43 points more Republican.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Plum Tree, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Plum Tree looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 94% of households in Plum Tree own their home, about 18 points above the Virginia average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mineral, VA R+39
- Wares Crossroads, VA R+39
- Mount Garland, VA R+32
- Partlow, VA R+45
- Bumpass, VA R+42
- Chilesburg, VA R+29
- Beaverdam, VA R+30
- Thornhill, VA R+46
- Tatum, VA R+48
- Locust Creek, VA R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cora, WY R+50
- Elbe, WA R+34
- Santee, NE R+9
- Hamlin, PA R+57
- Bruin, PA R+62
- Redford, NY R+28
- Chestnut, IL R+55
- Ranshaw, PA R+56
- West Finley, PA R+59
- Hernshaw, WV R+59
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.