Rancho San Joaquin leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 42% of adults in Rancho San Joaquin typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rancho San Joaquin, ~28% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rancho San Joaquin compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Rancho San Joaquin leans more Democratic than 21 of 23 neighbors.
Rancho San Joaquin runs about 13 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Rancho San Joaquin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rancho San Joaquin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 63% of adults in Rancho San Joaquin hold a bachelor's degree, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 55% of adults in Rancho San Joaquin have never been married, above 88% of neighborhoods.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Rancho San Joaquin, Irvine, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Rancho San Joaquin looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 83% of households in Rancho San Joaquin rent, about 58 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 13% of homes in Rancho San Joaquin have more than one occupant per room, above 95% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- University Park, Irvine, CA D+16
- University Town Center, Irvine, CA D+33
- Irvine Business Complex, Irvine, CA D+11
- Business District, Irvine, CA D+16
- West Park, Irvine, CA D+14
- UC Irvine, Irvine, CA D+70
- Woodbridge, Irvine, CA D+9
- Turtle Rock, Irvine, CA D+11
- Oak Creek, Irvine, CA D+12
- Turtle Ridge, Irvine, CA R+6
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Dineen Park, Milwaukee, WI D+80
- Bell Hill, Worcester, MA D+36
- Birmingham, Toledo, OH D+12
- Barths, Wheat Ridge, CO D+36
- 6th Ward, Portsmouth, OH R+46
- Ladera West, Albuquerque, NM D+15
- Gateway Center, Sacramento, CA D+48
- South City Farms, Sacramento, CA D+29
- Stratmoor Hills, Stratmoor, CO R+2
- Reed, Portland, OR D+74
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.