Turtle Rock leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Turtle Rock typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Turtle Rock, ~38% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Turtle Rock compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Turtle Rock leans more Democratic than 4 of 15 neighbors.
Turtle Rock runs about 9 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Turtle Rock. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+21) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Turtle Rock leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Turtle Rock, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 76% of adults in Turtle Rock hold a bachelor's degree, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; Turtle Rock, Irvine, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Turtle Rock looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Turtle Rock is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Turtle Rock have completed high school, above 84% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- University Park, Irvine, CA D+16
- UC Irvine, Irvine, CA D+70
- Turtle Ridge, Irvine, CA R+6
- University Town Center, Irvine, CA D+33
- Rancho San Joaquin, Irvine, CA D+33
- Quail Hill, Irvine, CA D+15
- Oak Creek, Irvine, CA D+12
- Woodbridge, Irvine, CA D+9
- West Park, Irvine, CA D+14
- Irvine Business Complex, Irvine, CA D+11
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Pine Point, Springfield, MA D+41
- Harbour Pointe, Mukilteo, WA D+22
- Coulwood West, Charlotte, NC D+42
- Harris-Houston, Charlotte, NC D+56
- Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ R+23
- Bridgeland, Cypress, TX R+24
- Southeastern Hills, Lexington, KY D+24
- Leimert Park, Los Angeles, CA D+78
- Cypress Station, Houston, TX D+59
- Woodlawn, Pawtucket, RI D+40
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.