Refugio leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Refugio typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Refugio, ~22% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Refugio compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Refugio leans more Republican than 2 of 13 neighbors.
Refugio runs about 19 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Refugio. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+58) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 35 points.
Why Refugio leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Refugio, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Refugio votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 53%, well above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Refugio sits in the bottom quarter (about 11%, below 89% of cities).
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Refugio, TX sits below the national average on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Refugio looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Refugio is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 8 points below the Texas average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Woodsboro, TX R+37
- Vidaurri, TX R+48
- Blanconia, TX R+53
- Bayside, TX R+59
- Estes, TX R+57
- Papalote, TX R+35
- Fulton, TX R+50
- Taft Southwest, TX R+39
- Rockport, TX R+44
- Mcfaddin, TX R+67
Cities with Similar Populations
- Emporium, PA R+44
- Carthage, IL R+37
- Pawnee, IL R+39
- Stover, MO R+65
- Sleepy Hollow, IL D+5
- Blooming Prairie, MN R+31
- California, KY R+54
- Fife Lake, MI R+40
- DeLevan, NY R+41
- Union City, OH R+59
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.