Rincon Heights is a Democratic stronghold. About 78% of voters here vote Democratic and 22% Republican.
About 30% of adults in Rincon Heights typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rincon Heights, ~23% vote Democratic, ~7% Republican, and ~70% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rincon Heights compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Rincon Heights leans more Democratic than 22 of 25 neighbors.
Rincon Heights runs about 62 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Rincon Heights is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Rincon Heights. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+61) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+47), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Rincon Heights leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rincon Heights, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Rincon Heights live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 90% of adults in Rincon Heights have never been married, in the top fraction of neighborhoods. Rincon Heights runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Rincon Heights, Tucson, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Rincon Heights looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 89% of households in Rincon Heights rent, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Rincon Heights sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- West University, Tucson, AZ D+58
- Armory Park, Tucson, AZ D+59
- North University, Tucson, AZ D+56
- Sam Hughes, Tucson, AZ D+59
- Miramonte, Tucson, AZ D+43
- South Park, Tucson, AZ D+38
- Blenman-Elm, Tucson, AZ D+52
- Palo Verde, Tucson, AZ D+41
- Menlo Park, Tucson, AZ D+46
- Hedrick Acres, Tucson, AZ D+53
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Sylvan Park, Nashville, TN D+38
- Bayside, Queens, NY D+9
- Lytle Creek, San Bernardino, CA D+26
- Old Town-Chinatown, Portland, OR D+54
- Downtown Omaha, Omaha, NE D+49
- Bay, Springfield, MA D+56
- Zach White, El Paso, TX Even
- West Southwest 3, Topeka, KS D+12
- Loch Raven Manor, Towson, MD D+46
- South Salt Creek, Lincoln, NE D+29
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.