Palo Verde leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Palo Verde typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Palo Verde, ~35% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Palo Verde compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Palo Verde leans more Democratic than 13 of 23 neighbors.
Palo Verde runs about 47 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Palo Verde is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Palo Verde leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Palo Verde, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Palo Verde votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Palo Verde runs about 47 points more Democratic. Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting, and non-Hispanic white share in Palo Verde is about 42%, about 31 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in Palo Verde have never been married, above 89% of neighborhoods.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Palo Verde, Tucson, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Palo Verde looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 70% of households in Palo Verde rent, about 45 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Palo Verde sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in Palo Verde have more than one occupant per room, above 87% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Tower Triangle, Aurora, CO D+9
- Strawberry Hill, Kansas City, KS D+43
- Northeast, Tampa, FL D+68
- East End, Portland, ME D+76
- South Rose Hill, Kirkland, WA D+44
- Ballentine Place, Norfolk, VA D+68
- Millsmont, Oakland, CA D+84
- Estudillo Estates-Glen, San Leandro, CA D+54
- Wright View, Dayton, OH Even
- Arden, Martinsburg, WV R+50
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.