Rosenberg, TX Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Rosenberg

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Rosenberg is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.

 

About 49% of adults in Rosenberg typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rosenberg, ~26% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Rosenberg compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Rosenberg leans more Democratic than 43 of 56 neighbors.

Rosenberg runs about 17 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Rosenberg is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Rosenberg. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 21 points.

Why Rosenberg leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rosenberg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rosenberg votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Rosenberg runs about 17 points more Democratic.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Rosenberg, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Rosenberg looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Rosenberg is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 37% of households in Rosenberg rent, compared to around 18% in nearby cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.