Rutherford County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Rutherford County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rutherford County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rutherford County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Rutherford County leans more Republican than 1 of 16 neighbors.
Rutherford County runs about 14 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Rutherford County. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+52) and the east side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 50 points.
Why Rutherford County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rutherford County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rutherford County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 64%, far above the Tennessee average of 21%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 71% of households in Rutherford County are family households, above 83% of counties.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Rutherford County, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Rutherford County looks the way it does
Turnout in Rutherford County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Wilson County, TN R+39
- Williamson County, TN R+29
- Cannon County, TN R+69
- Davidson County, TN D+26
- Bedford County, TN R+51
- Marshall County, TN R+54
- DeKalb County, TN R+63
- Coffee County, TN R+55
- Sumner County, TN R+40
- Smith County, TN R+64
Counties with Similar Populations
- Rockland County, NY R+14
- Somerset County, NJ D+15
- Marion County, OR D+3
- Hamilton County, IN R+5
- Cumberland County, NC D+20
- Henrico County, VA D+31
- Howard County, MD D+40
- Galveston County, TX R+13
- Horry County, SC R+30
- Boulder County, CO D+52
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.