San Lucas leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 32% of adults in San Lucas typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Lucas, ~13% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Lucas compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Lucas leans more Republican than 3 of 9 neighbors.
San Lucas runs about 35 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while San Lucas is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Lucas. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+41) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 39 points.
Why San Lucas leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Lucas, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in San Lucas live in densely developed areas, about 56 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 89% of households in San Lucas are family households, in the top fraction of cities. San Lucas runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as San Lucas, CA does.
Why turnout in San Lucas looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. San Lucas is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in San Lucas rent, above 88% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in San Lucas report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- King City, CA D+14
- Jolon, CA R+28
- Lockwood, CA R+34
- San Ardo, CA R+41
- Lonoak, CA R+37
- Greenfield, CA D+28
- Metz, CA R+3
- Bryson, CA R+25
- Bradley, CA R+36
- Gorda, CA R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Waggoner, IL R+54
- Wyano, PA R+52
- Pearson, OK R+71
- Lovelaceville, KY R+66
- Knox, NY R+19
- La Push, WA D+16
- Joseph, UT R+76
- Free Hope, AR R+49
- Verdi, MN R+57
- Litchfield, PA R+58
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.