Lonoak, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Lonoak

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Lonoak leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.

 

About 44% of adults in Lonoak typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lonoak, ~14% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~56% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Lonoak compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Lonoak leans more Republican than 5 of 7 neighbors.

Lonoak runs about 57 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lonoak is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lonoak. The northwest side is the most split-leaning (R+49) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 47 points.

Why Lonoak leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lonoak, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Lonoak live in densely developed areas, about 57 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Lonoak are family households, above 89% of cities. Lonoak runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean

Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Lonoak, CA does.

Why turnout in Lonoak looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lonoak is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in Lonoak rent, above 88% of cities. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 5% of homes in Lonoak have more than one occupant per room, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.