San Martin is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 59% of adults in San Martin typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Martin, ~28% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Martin compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Martin leans more Republican than 28 of 32 neighbors.
San Martin runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while San Martin is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Martin. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 14 points.
Why San Martin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Martin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
San Martin votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while San Martin runs about 24 points more Republican.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as San Martin, CA does.
Why turnout in San Martin looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in San Martin have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rucker, CA R+5
- Morgan Hill, CA D+13
- Gilroy, CA D+17
- Lonoke, CA Even
- Old Gilroy, CA R+5
- Coyote, CA R+6
- Corralitos, CA D+36
- Freedom, CA D+40
- Watsonville, CA D+36
- Pajaro, CA D+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Marshall, IL R+47
- Jasper, TN R+62
- Ingram, TX R+59
- Atkins, AR R+65
- Brush, CO R+36
- Boiling Springs, PA R+24
- Larose, LA R+73
- Ripley, WV R+56
- Harrisville, RI R+18
- Bailey, NC R+34
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.