Pajaro leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 41% of adults in Pajaro typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pajaro, ~24% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pajaro compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Pajaro leans more Democratic than 16 of 42 neighbors.
Politically, Pajaro sits close to the rest of California.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Pajaro. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+29) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Pajaro leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pajaro, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 33% of adults in Pajaro have never been married, modestly above similar-sized cities (around 24%).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Pajaro, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Pajaro looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Pajaro is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 49% of households in Pajaro rent, compared to around 28% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in Pajaro report food insecurity, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Watsonville, CA D+36
- Freedom, CA D+40
- La Selva Beach, CA D+52
- Aromas, CA D+12
- Corralitos, CA D+36
- Moss Landing, CA D+16
- Elkhorn, CA Even
- Rio del Mar, CA D+43
- Prunedale, CA Even
- Lonoke, CA Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Oxford, NE R+73
- Winona, OH R+57
- Schulte, KS R+48
- Juddville, MI R+33
- Midway, LA R+77
- Centertown, KY R+69
- Garvin, OK R+71
- Twin Bridges, MT R+56
- Sanderson Corner, VT R+17
- Hawkeye, IA R+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.