Gilroy leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Gilroy typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Gilroy, ~30% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Gilroy compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Gilroy leans more Democratic than 14 of 28 neighbors.
Politically, Gilroy sits close to the rest of California.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Gilroy. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+33) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Gilroy leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Gilroy, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 76% of residents in Gilroy live in densely developed areas, about 40 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in Gilroy have never been married, above 89% of cities.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Gilroy, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Gilroy looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Gilroy is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in Gilroy rent, above 94% of cities. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 7% of homes in Gilroy have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lonoke, CA Even
- Rucker, CA R+5
- Old Gilroy, CA R+5
- San Martin, CA R+4
- Morgan Hill, CA D+13
- Aromas, CA D+12
- Pajaro, CA D+18
- San Juan Bautista, CA D+23
- Watsonville, CA D+36
- Freedom, CA D+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wyoming, MI D+12
- North Little Rock, AR D+31
- Port Orchard, WA D+3
- Brentwood, CA D+7
- Powder Springs, GA D+26
- Goose Creek, SC R+5
- Clermont, FL R+16
- South San Francisco, CA D+43
- Doral, FL R+18
- San Pablo, CA D+48
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.