Morgan Hill leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Morgan Hill typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Morgan Hill, ~38% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Morgan Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Morgan Hill leans more Democratic than 10 of 38 neighbors.
Morgan Hill runs about 7 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Morgan Hill. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+21) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+5), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Morgan Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Morgan Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 72% of residents in Morgan Hill live in densely developed areas, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Morgan Hill sits in the top quarter (about 46%, above 92% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Morgan Hill, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Morgan Hill looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Morgan Hill is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- San Martin, CA R+4
- Rucker, CA R+5
- Coyote, CA R+6
- Gilroy, CA D+17
- Lonoke, CA Even
- Old Gilroy, CA R+5
- Corralitos, CA D+36
- Freedom, CA D+40
- Watsonville, CA D+36
- Pajaro, CA D+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Glendora, CA Even
- Asheboro, NC R+33
- Evans, GA R+27
- Olive Branch, MS R+12
- New Iberia, LA R+24
- New Bern, NC R+8
- Findlay, OH R+23
- Winter Garden, FL Even
- Minnetonka, MN D+33
- Collierville, TN R+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.