Second Mesa is a Democratic stronghold. About 84% of voters here vote Democratic and 16% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Second Mesa typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Second Mesa, ~50% vote Democratic, ~9% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Second Mesa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Second Mesa leans more Democratic than 11 of 13 neighbors.
Second Mesa runs about 73 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Second Mesa is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why Second Mesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Second Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Second Mesa votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Second Mesa runs about 73 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in Second Mesa have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Second Mesa, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Second Mesa looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Second Mesa is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 42%, about 12 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 46% of households in Second Mesa rent, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 38% of adults in Second Mesa report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Toreva, AZ D+66
- Shongopovi, AZ D+61
- Walpi, AZ D+68
- Sichomovi, AZ D+68
- Polacca, AZ D+68
- Oraibi, AZ D+58
- Kykotsmovi Village, AZ D+59
- Bacavi, AZ D+58
- Hotevilla, AZ D+58
- Keams Canyon, AZ D+61
Cities with Similar Populations
- Macksville, WV R+72
- Santo Tomas, NM R+4
- Waverly Woods, IN R+56
- Roanoke Junction, AL R+62
- Lowden, WA R+55
- Counts Crossroads, KY R+61
- Kringsbush, NY R+47
- Westville, NY R+9
- Valley Junction, OR R+26
- Galesburg, ND R+39
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.