Shafter is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Shafter typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shafter, ~13% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shafter compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shafter leans more Republican than 32 of 55 neighbors.
Shafter runs about 74 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Shafter is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shafter. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+69) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+57), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Shafter leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shafter, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Shafter votes against the grain of Illinois. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Shafter runs about 74 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Shafter are family households, above 90% of cities.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Shafter, IL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Shafter looks the way it does
Turnout in Shafter sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Vandalia, IL R+49
- Van Burensburg, IL R+56
- Mulberry Grove, IL R+44
- Bingham, IL R+65
- Shobonier, IL R+68
- Pleasant Mound, IL R+63
- Confidence, IL R+74
- Fillmore, IL R+56
- Ramsey, IL R+66
- Hagarstown, IL R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Spears Corner, ME R+33
- Loyalhanna, PA R+36
- Rosston, AR R+56
- Tatum, VA R+48
- Clear Creek Springs, KY R+78
- Avoca, AR R+46
- Cromwell, MN R+28
- Penfield, OH R+46
- Hardware, VA R+36
- Leonville, LA R+36
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.