Shell Lake leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Shell Lake typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shell Lake, ~21% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shell Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shell Lake leans more Republican than 28 of 56 neighbors.
Shell Lake runs about 20 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Shell Lake. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+44), a spread of about 52 points.
Why Shell Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shell Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Shell Lake live in densely developed areas, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 13%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Shell Lake, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Shell Lake looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Shell Lake is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in Shell Lake report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Heth, AR R+31
- Gladden, AR D+6
- Jennette, AR Even
- Julius, AR Even
- Lansing, AR D+15
- Norvell, AR D+33
- Earle, AR D+50
- Parkin, AR D+5
- Edmondson, AR D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dispatch, KS R+73
- West Union, IN R+61
- Whelen Springs, AR R+65
- West Groton, VT R+16
- Southport, IL R+37
- Heglar, ID R+76
- Concorde Hills, OH R+12
- Eureka, WV R+55
- Hauntown, IA R+47
- Glen Mawr, PA R+63
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.