Shepherd Hill is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Shepherd Hill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Shepherd Hill, ~13% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Shepherd Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Shepherd Hill leans more Republican than 43 of 112 neighbors.
Shepherd Hill runs about 75 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Shepherd Hill is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Shepherd Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Shepherd Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of adults in Shepherd Hill hold a bachelor's degree, about 29 points below the Virginia average of 29%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 94% of residents in Shepherd Hill drive to work alone, above 98% of cities. Shepherd Hill runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a low never-married share and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Shepherd Hill, VA does.
Why turnout in Shepherd Hill looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in Shepherd Hill own their home, about 14 points above the Virginia average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Keokee, VA R+68
- Holmes Mill, KY R+79
- Maness, VA R+67
- Rutherford, KY R+77
- Dryden, VA R+65
- St. Charles, VA R+68
- Closplint, KY R+79
- Black Bottom, KY R+79
Cities with Similar Populations
- Keystone, WV R+19
- Gross, FL R+47
- Dwyer, WY R+73
- Irwin, CA R+60
- Brewster, NE R+78
- Galatia, NC Even
- Nashville, KS R+71
- Fountain Creek, IL R+52
- Shortsville, PA R+62
- St. Bernice, IN R+56
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.