Sierra Montana leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Sierra Montana typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Sierra Montana, ~26% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Sierra Montana compares
Sierra Montana runs about 15 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Sierra Montana. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Sierra Montana leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Sierra Montana, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 86% of households in Sierra Montana are family households, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Sierra Montana, Surprise, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Sierra Montana looks the way it does
Turnout in Sierra Montana sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ R+23
- Agua Fria, El Mirage, AZ D+12
- Ventana Lakes, Peoria, AZ R+24
- Vistancia, Peoria, AZ R+21
- Camino Lago, Phoenix, AZ R+27
- Peacock Village, Peoria, AZ R+17
- Alta Loma, Peoria, AZ R+3
- Sundance, Buckeye, AZ R+8
- Ironwood Terrace, Glendale, AZ D+27
- Greenbriar, Glendale, AZ R+4
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Vineyard, Escondido, CA D+9
- Kenawood-Rockwood, Lexington, KY D+9
- Davidson, Kansas City, MO D+11
- Downtown Lansing, Lansing, MI D+57
- Jingletown, Oakland, CA D+55
- Heights, Laredo, TX D+11
- Fernside, Alameda, CA D+67
- Mt Vernon Park, Lawrence, MA D+10
- Downtown, Kent, WA D+36
- Horseshoe Park, Aurora, CO D+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.