Surprise Farms leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Surprise Farms typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Surprise Farms, ~27% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Surprise Farms compares
Surprise Farms runs about 18 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Surprise Farms leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Surprise Farms, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 88% of households in Surprise Farms are family households, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Surprise Farms looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 99% of adults in Surprise Farms have completed high school, about 12 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Sierra Montana, Surprise, AZ R+20
- Agua Fria, El Mirage, AZ D+12
- Ventana Lakes, Peoria, AZ R+24
- Vistancia, Peoria, AZ R+21
- Camino Lago, Phoenix, AZ R+27
- Peacock Village, Peoria, AZ R+17
- Alta Loma, Peoria, AZ R+3
- Sundance, Buckeye, AZ R+8
- Ironwood Terrace, Glendale, AZ D+27
- Cactus Gale, Glendale, AZ R+11
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Harris-Houston, Charlotte, NC D+56
- Turtle Rock, Irvine, CA D+11
- Pine Point, Springfield, MA D+41
- Woodlawn, Pawtucket, RI D+40
- Seminary, Oakland, CA D+77
- Harbour Pointe, Mukilteo, WA D+22
- Harvey Park, Denver, CO D+34
- Coulwood West, Charlotte, NC D+42
- Adams Park, Atlanta, GA D+86
- Bridgeland, Cypress, TX R+24
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.