South Warsaw, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in South Warsaw

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

South Warsaw leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.

 

About 58% of adults in South Warsaw typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Warsaw, ~19% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How South Warsaw compares

Among cities within 25 miles, South Warsaw leans more Republican than 43 of 125 neighbors.

South Warsaw runs about 49 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while South Warsaw is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Why South Warsaw leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Warsaw, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In South Warsaw, about 97% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 8% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 26 points below the New York average of 34%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in South Warsaw are family households, above 75% of cities. South Warsaw runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; South Warsaw, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in South Warsaw looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 32% of households in South Warsaw rent, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.