Mesa County leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Mesa County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa County compares
Mesa County runs about 31 points more Republican than Colorado as a whole. Colorado leans Democratic overall, while Mesa County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Mesa County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Mesa County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mesa County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, far above the Colorado average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Mesa County runs against the grain of Colorado, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Mesa County, CO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mesa County looks the way it does
Turnout in Mesa County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Delta County, CO R+35
- Montrose County, CO R+30
- Garfield County, CO R+5
- Grand County, UT R+2
- Rio Blanco County, CO R+46
- Ouray County, CO D+13
- San Miguel County, CO D+35
- Pitkin County, CO D+40
- Gunnison County, CO D+31
- Dolores County, CO R+45
Counties with Similar Populations
- Franklin County, PA R+41
- Columbia County, GA R+21
- Madera County, CA R+11
- Santa Fe County, NM D+45
- Monroe County, MI R+27
- Washington County, MD R+18
- Stafford County, VA D+6
- Canadian County, OK R+37
- Rankin County, MS R+42
- Berrien County, MI Even
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Colorado Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.