Stafford leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Stafford typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Stafford, ~44% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Stafford compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Stafford leans more Democratic than 62 of 95 neighbors.
Stafford runs about 5 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Stafford. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+23) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 36 points.
Why Stafford leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Stafford, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 60% of residents in Stafford live in densely developed areas, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Stafford sits in the top quarter (about 44%, above 90% of cities).
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Stafford, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Stafford looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Stafford is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Garrisonville, VA Even
- Widewater, VA R+9
- Brooke, VA R+8
- Ruby, VA Even
- Quantico Base, VA R+5
- Triangle, VA D+43
- Quantico, VA D+38
- Somerville, VA R+36
- Dumfries, VA D+41
- Hartwood, VA R+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lynchburg, VA D+4
- Fall River, MA Even
- Springfield, OH R+11
- Canyon Country, CA D+3
- Cedar Park, TX D+7
- Winter Haven, FL R+13
- Carson, CA D+38
- Johnson City, TN R+27
- Alpharetta, GA D+5
- Bremerton, WA D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.