Tilly is a Republican stronghold. About 17% of voters here vote Democratic and 83% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Tilly typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tilly, ~8% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tilly compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tilly leans more Republican than 23 of 50 neighbors.
Tilly runs about 35 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Tilly leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tilly, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Tilly live in densely developed areas, about 10 points below the Arkansas average of 13%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Tilly sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 82% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Tilly, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Tilly looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tilly is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 12 points below the U.S. average of 60%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Tilly report food insecurity, above 87% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in Tilly have completed high school, below 80% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Witts Springs, AR R+63
- Chimes, AR R+64
- Bear Creek, AR R+64
- Smyrna, AR R+68
- Woolum, AR R+63
- Rex, AR R+69
- Moore, AR R+64
- Lost Corner, AR R+68
- Canaan, AR R+66
Cities with Similar Populations
- Maple Grove, VA R+29
- Cusson, MN R+27
- East Franklin, ME R+13
- Rural Hill, NY R+34
- Patzau, WI R+29
- Stacy Basin, NY R+40
- Staff, TX R+75
- Leando, IA R+57
- Hurley, KY R+80
- Mount Sunapee, NH R+6
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.