Tustin leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Tustin typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tustin, ~31% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tustin compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tustin leans more Democratic than 59 of 89 neighbors.
Tustin runs about 6 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tustin. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+3), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Tustin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tustin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 99% of residents in Tustin live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Tustin sits in the top quarter (about 46%, above 91% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in Tustin have never been married, above 91% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Tustin, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Tustin looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 52% of households in Tustin rent, about 27 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 13% of homes in Tustin have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- North Tustin, CA R+9
- Irvine, CA D+18
- Santa Ana, CA D+24
- Orange, CA D+6
- Villa Park, CA R+22
- Orange Park Acres, CA R+28
- Costa Mesa, CA D+8
- Fountain Valley, CA R+3
- Garden Grove, CA Even
- Anaheim, CA D+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Covington, GA D+22
- Bismarck, ND R+30
- Champaign, IL D+45
- Napa, CA D+32
- Walnut Creek, CA D+47
- Utica, MI R+22
- Clifton, NJ Even
- Bloomington, MN D+32
- Manteca, CA R+8
- Elkhart, IN R+15
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.