Uncertain leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Uncertain typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Uncertain, ~20% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Uncertain compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Uncertain leans more Republican than 13 of 42 neighbors.
Uncertain runs about 33 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Uncertain. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 52 points.
Why Uncertain leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Uncertain, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Uncertain drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Uncertain, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Uncertain looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in Uncertain own their home, about 17 points above the Texas average of 75%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Uncertain sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Karnack, TX R+42
- Gray, TX R+48
- Leigh, TX R+14
- Ferry Lake, LA R+61
- Gethsemane, TX R+50
- Oil City, LA R+43
- Smithland, TX R+51
- Mooringsport, LA R+65
- Lodi, TX R+48
- Vivian, LA R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rose City, MN R+56
- Eureka Springs, MS R+45
- Powell, OK R+71
- Meaux, LA R+71
- Peaks Mill, KY R+52
- Oakford, IL R+60
- Amma, WV R+62
- Carmel, LA R+2
- Rutsonville, NY R+11
- Elkatawa, KY R+62
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.