Union County is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Union County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Union County, ~13% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Union County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Union County leans more Republican than 8 of 12 neighbors.
Union County runs about 48 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Union County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+80) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+52), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Union County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Union County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 11% of adults in Union County hold a bachelor's degree, about 20 points below the Florida average of 31%. Rural areas vote Republican, and Union County sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 12%, below 78% of counties).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Union County, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Union County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Union County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 9 points below the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Bradford County, FL R+50
- Columbia County, FL R+44
- Baker County, FL R+61
- Alachua County, FL D+22
- Clay County, FL R+31
- Gilchrist County, FL R+68
- Suwannee County, FL R+58
- Putnam County, FL R+42
- Levy County, FL R+56
- Duval County, FL D+7
Counties with Similar Populations
- Parke County, IN R+59
- Long County, GA R+26
- Appomattox County, VA R+44
- Wayne County, IL R+65
- Crawford County, WI R+26
- Trinity County, CA R+14
- Lawrence County, AR R+65
- Bayfield County, WI D+6
- Radford City, VA Even
- Wayne County, TN R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.