Duval County leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Duval County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Duval County, ~36% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Duval County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Duval County is the most Democratic-leaning.
Duval County runs about 20 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Duval County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Duval County. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+52) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Duval County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Duval County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 76% of residents in Duval County live in densely developed areas, about 39 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Duval County sits in the top quarter (about 33%, above 84% of counties). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in Duval County have never been married, above 87% of counties.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Duval County, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Duval County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Duval County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Clay County, FL R+31
- Nassau County, FL R+47
- St. Johns County, FL R+26
- Baker County, FL R+61
- Camden County, GA R+35
- Bradford County, FL R+50
- Charlton County, GA R+46
- Putnam County, FL R+42
- Union County, FL R+61
- Flagler County, FL R+29
Counties with Similar Populations
- St. Louis County, MO D+28
- Westchester County, NY D+27
- Fresno County, CA D+3
- Marion County, IN D+29
- Honolulu County, HI D+18
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Gwinnett County, GA D+21
- Bergen County, NJ D+5
- Erie County, NY D+15
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.