Lawrence County is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Lawrence County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lawrence County, ~11% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lawrence County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lawrence County leans more Republican than 9 of 12 neighbors.
Lawrence County runs about 34 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lawrence County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+74) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+56), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Lawrence County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lawrence County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 83% of residents in Lawrence County drive to work alone, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Lawrence County fits that profile on both counts.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Lawrence County, AR sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Lawrence County looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 33% of households in Lawrence County rent, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Lawrence County sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in Lawrence County have completed high school, below 86% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Randolph County, AR R+63
- Sharp County, AR R+62
- Craighead County, AR R+27
- Greene County, AR R+58
- Jackson County, AR R+48
- Independence County, AR R+57
- Ripley County, MO R+70
- Poinsett County, AR R+56
- Oregon County, MO R+69
- Clay County, AR R+62
Counties with Similar Populations
- Bayfield County, WI D+6
- Wayne County, TN R+71
- Dade County, GA R+64
- Wayne County, IL R+65
- Long County, GA R+26
- Parke County, IN R+59
- Union County, FL R+61
- Lawrence County, KY R+67
- Brooks County, GA R+23
- Hill County, MT R+23
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.