Upper Falls leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in Upper Falls typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upper Falls, ~35% vote Democratic, ~77% Republican, and ~-12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Upper Falls compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Upper Falls leans more Republican than 106 of 124 neighbors.
Upper Falls runs about 68 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Upper Falls is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Upper Falls leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upper Falls, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Upper Falls votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 21%, well below the Maryland average of 43%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Upper Falls runs against the grain of Maryland, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Upper Falls, MD sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Upper Falls looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Upper Falls is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and more than 99% of households in Upper Falls own their home, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kingsville, MD R+32
- Joppatowne, MD D+5
- Joppa, MD R+23
- Pleasant Hills, MD R+17
- White Marsh, MD D+8
- Perry Hall, MD D+6
- Edgewood, MD D+34
- Oliver Beach, MD R+44
- Hydes, MD R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Marshville, ME R+36
- Erastus, NC R+29
- Turkey Hill Shores, MA Even
- Turley, NM R+61
- Carlyle, KS R+61
- Kansas Settlement, AZ R+41
- Washburn, AR R+75
- Bovill, ID R+54
- Kidds Fork, VA R+7
- Indian Island Penobscot Indian Reservation, ME R+36
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.