Upperville leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 80% of adults in Upperville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Upperville, ~32% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Upperville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Upperville leans more Republican than 58 of 96 neighbors.
Upperville runs about 26 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Upperville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Upperville. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Upperville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Upperville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Upperville votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Upperville runs about 26 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Upperville are family households, above 85% of cities.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Upperville, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Upperville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Upperville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Willisville, VA D+7
- Trapp, VA R+15
- Rectortown, VA R+26
- Delaplane, VA R+28
- Paris, VA R+14
- Middleburg, VA D+11
- Bluemont, VA R+8
- Airmont, VA Even
- Belvoir, VA R+9
- The Plains, VA R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Craigmont, ID R+66
- Elba, MN R+38
- Okabena, MN R+59
- Maxville, AR R+71
- Carlton, AL R+19
- Ridgeway, NY R+49
- Winton, MN R+4
- Rollin, MI R+40
- Sugar Mountain, NC R+23
- Sturdivant, TX R+76
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.