Vail, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Vail

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Vail leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.

 

About 84% of adults in Vail typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vail, ~34% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Vail compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Vail leans more Republican than 10 of 15 neighbors.

Vail runs about 15 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vail. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+40) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 35 points.

Why Vail leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vail, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Vail votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 30%, modestly below the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Vail are family households, above 95% of cities.

Preventive-care access and voter turnout

Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Vail, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.

Why turnout in Vail looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Vail is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 93% of households in Vail own their home, compared to around 78% in nearby cities. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Vail have completed high school, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.