South Tucson, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in South Tucson

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

South Tucson leans heavily Democratic by roughly 44 points: about 72% of voters vote Democratic and 28% Republican.

 

About 33% of adults in South Tucson typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in South Tucson, ~24% vote Democratic, ~9% Republican, and ~67% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How South Tucson compares

Among cities within 25 miles, South Tucson is the most Democratic-leaning.

South Tucson runs about 50 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while South Tucson is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Why South Tucson leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for South Tucson, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in South Tucson live in densely developed areas, about 63 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 45% of adults in South Tucson have never been married, above 96% of cities. South Tucson runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Preventive-care access and voter turnout

Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; South Tucson, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.

Why turnout in South Tucson looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. South Tucson is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 15 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 65% of households in South Tucson rent, compared to around 21% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 42% of adults in South Tucson report food insecurity, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.