Tucson, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Tucson

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Tucson leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.

 

About 65% of adults in the Tucson area typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Tucson area, ~38% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Tucson compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Tucson leans more Democratic than 14 of 19 neighbors.

Tucson runs about 22 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Tucson is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tucson. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+2), a spread of about 23 points.

Why Tucson leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tucson, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in the Tucson area live in densely developed areas, about 42 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Tucson sits in the top quarter (about 35%, above 83% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in the Tucson area have never been married, above 87% of cities.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Tucson, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Tucson looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tucson is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.