Vallecito leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Vallecito typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vallecito, ~36% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vallecito compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vallecito leans more Republican than 11 of 43 neighbors.
Vallecito runs about 35 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Vallecito is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vallecito. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+27) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Vallecito leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vallecito, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Vallecito votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Vallecito runs about 35 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Vallecito, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Vallecito looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 98% of adults in Vallecito have completed high school, about 12 points above the California average of 86%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Douglas Flat, CA R+9
- Columbia, CA R+18
- Murphys, CA R+7
- Angels, CA R+30
- Altaville, CA R+21
- Tuttletown, CA R+25
- Angels Camp, CA R+32
- Hathaway Pines, CA R+10
- Sonora, CA R+17
- Jamestown, CA R+23
Cities with Similar Populations
- Toneyville, AR R+44
- Mifflin, OH R+58
- Bowmore, NC D+24
- White Lake, SD R+59
- Timberlake, OH R+11
- Carlisle, TN R+67
- Rarden, OH R+63
- Goshen, TN R+75
- Crumpton, MD R+34
- Cuttingsville, VT D+5
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.