Valley Mills is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Valley Mills typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valley Mills, ~12% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valley Mills compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Valley Mills leans more Republican than 19 of 43 neighbors.
Valley Mills runs about 55 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Valley Mills. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+76) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+62), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Valley Mills leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Valley Mills, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Valley Mills votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 27%, modestly below the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in Valley Mills are family households, above 86% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Valley Mills, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Valley Mills looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Valley Mills is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Coryell, TX R+72
- Crawford, TX R+75
- China Spring, TX R+72
- Clifton, TX R+50
- Mosheim, TX R+74
- Ocee, TX R+65
- Osage, TX R+75
- Womack, TX R+72
- Laguna Park, TX R+65
- Gholson, TX R+67
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dundas, MN R+9
- Flat Rock, AL R+83
- Hughes Springs, TX R+52
- Marshall, AR R+68
- Spring Mills, PA R+37
- Verdi, NV R+20
- Bowman, SC D+19
- Ingalls, IN R+42
- Indian Hills, KY D+3
- Maybee, MI R+41
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.