Valley Oak leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Valley Oak typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Valley Oak, ~26% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Valley Oak compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Valley Oak leans more Democratic than 6 of 11 neighbors.
Valley Oak runs about 8 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Valley Oak. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+25) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+3), a spread of about 28 points.
Why Valley Oak leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Valley Oak. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Valley Oak, Stockton, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Valley Oak looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 13% of homes in Valley Oak have more than one occupant per room, above 95% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in Valley Oak have completed high school, below 88% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Lakeview, Stockton, CA D+20
- Lincoln Village Proper, Stockton, CA D+2
- Stonewood, Stockton, CA D+12
- Pacific, Stockton, CA D+24
- Bear Creek, Stockton, CA D+15
- Sherwoods Manor, Stockton, CA D+8
- Sherwood Manor, Stockton, CA D+14
- Spanos Park, Stockton, CA D+6
- Lincoln Village West, Stockton, CA D+11
- Civic Center, Stockton, CA D+34
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Southeast Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO D+12
- Downtown San Francisco, San Francisco, CA D+56
- East Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO D+19
- El Sereno, Los Angeles, CA D+43
- Briargate, Colorado Springs, CO R+11
- Lone Mountain, Las Vegas, NV D+6
- East Foothills, San Jose, CA D+27
- University Heights, Bronx, NY D+31
- Greenpoint, Brooklyn, NY D+65
- St Albans, Queens, NY D+78
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.