Bear Creek leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Bear Creek typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bear Creek, ~26% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bear Creek compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Bear Creek leans more Democratic than 8 of 10 neighbors.
Bear Creek runs about 5 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Bear Creek. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+20) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+6), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Bear Creek leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Bear Creek. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bear Creek, Stockton, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bear Creek looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 8% of homes in Bear Creek have more than one occupant per room, above 87% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Stonewood, Stockton, CA D+12
- Sherwood Manor, Stockton, CA D+14
- Sherwoods Manor, Stockton, CA D+8
- Spanos Park, Stockton, CA D+6
- Lincoln Village Proper, Stockton, CA D+2
- Lincoln Village West, Stockton, CA D+11
- Lakeview, Stockton, CA D+20
- Valley Oak, Stockton, CA D+12
- Brookside, Stockton, CA D+12
- Pacific, Stockton, CA D+24
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Outer Richmond, San Francisco, CA D+57
- Tierrasanta, San Diego, CA D+20
- Lower Peters Canyon, Irvine, CA D+13
- Liliha-Kapalama, Honolulu, HI D+23
- Villages of Palm Beach Lakes, West Palm Beach, FL D+31
- Golden Glades-The Woods, Jacksonville, FL R+17
- Northwest Dallas, Dallas, TX D+11
- Ocean View, San Francisco, CA D+45
- South Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ D+30
- Charles Village, Baltimore, MD D+79
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.