Vance leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Vance typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vance, ~30% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vance compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vance leans more Democratic than 24 of 57 neighbors.
Vance runs about 29 points more Democratic than Mississippi as a whole. Mississippi leans Republican overall, while Vance is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Vance. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+32) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Vance leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vance, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 38% of adults in Vance have never been married, modestly above similar-sized cities (around 23%). Vance runs against the grain of Mississippi, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Vance, MS sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Vance looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Vance is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 7%, about 53 points below the U.S. average of 60%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 37% of adults in Vance report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Dublin, MS R+3
- Tutwiler, MS D+55
- Boone, MS Even
- Lurand, MS Even
- Belen, MS D+31
- Lyon, MS D+51
- Lambert, MS D+63
- Bobo, MS Even
- Counts, MS R+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mount Pleasant, IN R+56
- Midway Corner, AR R+13
- Camargo, OK R+78
- Muncie, IL R+56
- Laddsburg, PA R+60
- Pullman, WV R+69
- Mendon, MO R+70
- Beaux Arts Village, WA D+48
- Stokley, MO R+62
- Wautubbee, MS R+60
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.