Wagoner is a Republican stronghold. About 17% of voters here vote Democratic and 83% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Wagoner typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wagoner, ~13% vote Democratic, ~62% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wagoner compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Wagoner leans more Republican than 10 of 43 neighbors.
Wagoner runs about 48 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Wagoner leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Wagoner, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Wagoner live in densely developed areas, about 17 points below the Missouri average of 22%.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Wagoner, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Wagoner looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 95% of households in Wagoner own their home, about 17 points above the Missouri average of 78%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Osiris, MO R+70
- Stockton, MO R+63
- Umber View Heights, MO R+61
- Jerico Springs, MO R+69
- Umber, MO R+65
- Caplinger Mills, MO R+72
- Arcola, MO R+69
- Virgil City, MO R+71
- Filley, MO R+66
- El Dorado Springs, MO R+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Delmar, VA R+62
- Tahona, OK R+62
- Sinking Spring, OH R+69
- Doland, SD R+54
- Leonia, FL R+80
- Swamp Run, WV R+64
- Bluffton, GA D+8
- North Vassalboro, ME R+19
- North Shafter, CA R+54
- Guerne, OH R+59
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.