North Shafter is a Republican stronghold. About 23% of voters here vote Democratic and 77% Republican.
About 24% of adults in North Shafter typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Shafter, ~6% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~76% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How North Shafter compares
Among cities within 25 miles, North Shafter leans more Republican than 12 of 17 neighbors.
North Shafter runs about 75 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while North Shafter is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within North Shafter. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+74) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+52), a spread of about 22 points.
Why North Shafter leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Shafter, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in North Shafter hold a bachelor's degree, about 26 points below the California average of 35%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 89% of households in North Shafter are family households, in the top fraction of cities. North Shafter runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; North Shafter, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in North Shafter looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. North Shafter is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 14 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 48% of households in North Shafter rent, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 33% of adults in North Shafter report food insecurity, above 97% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Shafter, CA R+11
- Mexican Colony, CA R+52
- Wasco, CA Even
- Buttonwillow, CA R+23
- McFarland, CA D+9
- Tupman, CA R+73
- Spicer City, CA R+9
- Oildale, CA R+34
- Delano, CA D+11
- Bakersfield, CA R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Westover Hills, VA R+5
- Bowen, KY R+64
- Cuba, KS R+67
- Hancocks Bridge, NJ R+55
- Kehoe, KY R+67
- Mumford, TX R+55
- Bluffton, GA D+8
- Board Camp, AR R+64
- Blankston, LA R+48
- Crewsville, FL R+70
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.