Winter Garden, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Winter Garden

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Winter Garden is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About 77% of adults in Winter Garden typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Winter Garden, ~38% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Winter Garden compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Winter Garden sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 38 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 28 leaning the other way.

Winter Garden runs about 13 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Winter Garden sits closer to the political middle.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Winter Garden. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 21 points.

Why Winter Garden leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Winter Garden, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Winter Garden votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Winter Garden runs about 13 points more Democratic.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Winter Garden, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Winter Garden looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Winter Garden is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.