03864 leans heavily Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican. These figures are model estimates: New Hampshire did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 78% of adults in 03864 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 03864, ~27% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 03864 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 03864 leans more Republican than 20 of 21 neighbors.
03864 runs about 33 points more Republican than New Hampshire as a whole. New Hampshire is roughly evenly split, and 03864 sits clearly on the Republican side.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 03864. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+34) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 17 points.
Why 03864 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 03864, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
03864 votes against the grain of New Hampshire. New Hampshire is roughly evenly split, while 03864 runs about 33 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in 03864 are family households, above 91% of zip codes.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 03864, NH sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 03864 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 03864 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 64%, above 59% of zip codes. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in 03864 own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Hampshire Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. NH did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.