04438 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 76% of adults in 04438 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 04438, ~31% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 04438 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 04438 leans more Republican than 8 of 13 neighbors.
04438 runs about 25 points more Republican than Maine as a whole. Maine leans Democratic overall, while 04438 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 04438 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 04438, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
04438 votes against the grain of Maine. Maine leans Democratic overall, while 04438 runs about 25 points more Republican.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 04438, ME sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 04438 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 04438 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 59%, below 62% of zip codes. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in 04438 own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maine Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations Elections and Commissions, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. ME did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.