07838 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 78% of adults in 07838 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 07838, ~28% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 07838 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 07838 leans more Republican than 25 of 33 neighbors.
07838 runs about 33 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while 07838 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 07838. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+34) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 07838 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 07838, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
07838 votes against the grain of New Jersey. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while 07838 runs about 33 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in 07838 are family households, above 90% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 07838, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 07838 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 07838 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 88% of households in 07838 own their home, above 81% of zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 07838 have completed high school, above 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.