10538 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 89% of adults in 10538 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 10538, ~63% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 10538 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 10538 leans more Democratic than 104 of 137 neighbors.
10538 runs about 30 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 10538. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+53) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 16 points.
Why 10538 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 10538, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 84% of adults in 10538 hold a bachelor's degree, about 55 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 10538 sits in the top fifth on density (about 86%, above 85% of zip codes).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 10538, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 10538 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 10538 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 10538 have completed high school, above 96% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.