12804 is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 86% of adults in 12804 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12804, ~43% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12804 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12804 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 2 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 14 leaning the other way.
12804 runs about 13 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12804 sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12804. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 27 points.
Why 12804 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12804, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
12804 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12804 runs about 13 points more Republican.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; 12804, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in 12804 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12804 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.